Dangers of electing UHURU and RUTO ….. A MUST READ for all KENYANS

By NGUNJIRI WAMBUGU

After my article last week where I tried to speak truth to power I got an interesting write-up from a friend, who asked me to use it as I will on condition of anonymity. Since they are not my thoughts I will walk us through the article as questions.

First, the primary responsibility of Kenya’s 4th President will be to improve the physical and economic security of Kenyan citizens, so ideally we should expect a better life after 2013.

However should the President be an ICC suspect there is a high possibility that he might not be in a position to honour this Presidential responsibility.

In fact all indications are that life in Kenya could get a lot more expensive, as opportunities get significantly limited. Let us look at some scenarios.

Diplomatically, the USA and the UK have already signalled from the highest levels of their governments, that they will not support a Kenyan President who is accused at the ICC.

It can be expected that the European Union will also take a similar position. On the other hand it is expected that China and Russia will support the government of the day, thus will block any UN Security Council measures for sanctions. However is this enough to buttress Kenya from the punishment of the international community?

So, is it possible that Kenya under an ICC suspect could end up looking like Zimbabwe, Sudan, Gaza, Libya, Iran or Cuba?

Is there a possibility that with an ICC accused as President, both he and his close allies in government could be denied visas to the US, EU and countries like Australia, New Zealand and South Korea? Would our President would only be able to attend international meetings under UN immunity?

Economically, is it possible that we will have no one willing to do business with Kenya as an investor, overseas? Is the scenario of our President and maybe even the Minister of Finance not being in a position to have meetings with the World

Bank, IMF and even commercial lenders plausible? What about the US and the EU who control the World Bank and IMF; is it possible that these institutions will decline to do business with Kenya?

What would happen to the Kenyan economy in such a situation-how do we deal with the ravages of oil price fluctuations, global recession, major drought or significant internal unrest?

It is possible that such a government will lead to an immediate increase in interest rates, the drying up of bank lending, high petrol and consumer good prices, and even reduced local investment? What happens to our already challenging unemployment situation; will we have some of those currently lucky enough to be employed, losing their jobs?

What about the great road rehabilitation and expansion program? If the construction industry dwindles as it bound to with the situation above, what will be the impact to related industries like cement, steel, paint and glass? What of those who provide labour for construction-are they back in the streets, or will they cross over into crime?

Socially, would donors continue with development aid programmes? When western donors suspended aid after the 2007-08 PEV, even international meetings could not be held in Kenya with our government officials. Would a diplomatic fall out in 2013 result in freezing of aid?

Does the Kenyan middleclass (that scoffs at aid), appreciate how it holds the country together? Do we understand that service government agencies and ministries including health and education rely on foreign aid to deliver their programs?

I understand that donors fund every significant public health initiative including immunization, maternal care, malaria prevention & treatment, HIV and gender violence management, so would an aid-freeze result in patients going untreated, babies and mothers, family resources being drained, etc? Would TB, cholera and typhoid become prevalent enough in to start affecting even the middle & upper classes?

Let us go a little further; with an ICC accused President, what happens to implementation of the Constitution? Is the great promise for equality under devolution really going to take-off?

What about tax revenues, will they shrink in such a slowing economy? Is there a possibility that the new governors campaigning very hard looking at empty bank accounts from March, with little hope of changing the circumstances?

Will we be able to sustain commissions that are guiding the political and social changes in the Constitution, or will they also grind to a halt as money dries up? Is the promise of a new Kenya facing the risk of being still born?

Maybe all this is likely; maybe the international community will relent in the unlikely event of an Uhuru victory at the polls.

However I look at Zimbambwe., and it looks quite clear what they will do. So my final question goes to Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters; do you have answers to these questions? Are we ready to be wrong? Is it worth it?

Ngunjiri Wambugu- ODM Political Affairs Director