Dangers of electing UHURU and RUTO ….. A MUST READ for all KENYANS
By NGUNJIRI WAMBUGU
After my article last week where I tried to speak truth to
power I got an interesting write-up from a friend, who asked me to use it as I
will on condition of anonymity. Since they are not my thoughts I will walk us
through the article as questions.
First, the primary responsibility of Kenya’s 4th President
will be to improve the physical and economic security of Kenyan citizens, so
ideally we should expect a better life after 2013.
However should the President be an ICC suspect there is a
high possibility that he might not be in a position to honour this Presidential
responsibility.
In fact all indications are that life in Kenya could get a
lot more expensive, as opportunities get significantly limited. Let us look at
some scenarios.
Diplomatically, the USA and the UK have already signalled
from the highest levels of their governments, that they will not support a
Kenyan President who is accused at the ICC.
It can be expected that the European Union will also take a
similar position. On the other hand it is expected that China and Russia will
support the government of the day, thus will block any UN Security Council
measures for sanctions. However is this enough to buttress Kenya from the
punishment of the international community?
So, is it possible that Kenya under an ICC suspect could end
up looking like Zimbabwe, Sudan, Gaza, Libya, Iran or Cuba?
Is there a possibility that with an ICC accused as
President, both he and his close allies in government could be denied visas to
the US, EU and countries like Australia, New Zealand and South Korea? Would our
President would only be able to attend international meetings under UN
immunity?
Economically, is it possible that we will have no one
willing to do business with Kenya as an investor, overseas? Is the scenario of
our President and maybe even the Minister of Finance not being in a position to
have meetings with the World
Bank, IMF and even commercial lenders plausible? What about
the US and the EU who control the World Bank and IMF; is it possible that these
institutions will decline to do business with Kenya?
What would happen to the Kenyan economy in such a
situation-how do we deal with the ravages of oil price fluctuations, global
recession, major drought or significant internal unrest?
It is possible that such a government will lead to an
immediate increase in interest rates, the drying up of bank lending, high
petrol and consumer good prices, and even reduced local investment? What
happens to our already challenging unemployment situation; will we have some of
those currently lucky enough to be employed, losing their jobs?
What about the great road rehabilitation and expansion
program? If the construction industry dwindles as it bound to with the situation
above, what will be the impact to related industries like cement, steel, paint
and glass? What of those who provide labour for construction-are they back in
the streets, or will they cross over into crime?
Socially, would donors continue with development aid
programmes? When western donors suspended aid after the 2007-08 PEV, even
international meetings could not be held in Kenya with our government
officials. Would a diplomatic fall out in 2013 result in freezing of aid?
Does the Kenyan middleclass (that scoffs at aid), appreciate
how it holds the country together? Do we understand that service government
agencies and ministries including health and education rely on foreign aid to
deliver their programs?
I understand that donors fund every significant public
health initiative including immunization, maternal care, malaria prevention
& treatment, HIV and gender violence management, so would an aid-freeze
result in patients going untreated, babies and mothers, family resources being
drained, etc? Would TB, cholera and typhoid become prevalent enough in to start
affecting even the middle & upper classes?
Let us go a little further; with an ICC accused President,
what happens to implementation of the Constitution? Is the great promise for
equality under devolution really going to take-off?
What about tax revenues, will they shrink in such a slowing
economy? Is there a possibility that the new governors campaigning very hard
looking at empty bank accounts from March, with little hope of changing the
circumstances?
Will we be able to sustain commissions that are guiding the
political and social changes in the Constitution, or will they also grind to a
halt as money dries up? Is the promise of a new Kenya facing the risk of being
still born?
Maybe all this is likely; maybe the international community
will relent in the unlikely event of an Uhuru victory at the polls.
However I look at Zimbambwe., and it looks quite clear what
they will do. So my final question goes to Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters; do you
have answers to these questions? Are we ready to be wrong? Is it worth it?
Ngunjiri
Wambugu- ODM Political Affairs Director